China study warns of ‘colossal’ COVID outbreak if it opens up like US, France

According to a study by Peking University mathematicians in a report published in China CDC weekly, China could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs.

Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, the mathematicians assessed the potential results if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.

The report said, “The estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal outbreak,” and that for the time being, they are not ready to embrace ‘open-up’ strategies resting solely on the hypothesis of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries.

The mathematicians cautioned that these estimates were based on basic arithmetic calculations and that more sophisticated models were needed to study the evolution of the pandemic if travel restrictions were lifted.

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